How We Select Weekly Stock Picks

Each week, our stock trend forecast tool evaluates approximately 2,500 stocks in US markets. We normalize for current market conditions and assess stocks across several key dimensions to determine our top picks.

Key Analysis Components

• Fundamental Indicators:
  We analyze a company’s financial health by examining metrics such as profit margins, operating margins, return on assets/equity, and valuation ratios. These indicators help us gauge a company’s long‑term growth and financial stability.
• Technical Indicators:
  Our technical analysis involves computing trend indicators such as moving averages, MACD, regression-based momentum scores, and gap trend analysis. This helps us identify current trends and momentum shifts.
• Market Sentiment:
  We aggregate data from news feeds, social media, and analyst reports to determine overall investor sentiment. The sentiment score is derived from the slope and average of sentiment trends over time.
• Insider Trading Patterns:
  By monitoring recent trades by company insiders, we assess whether executives are buying or selling shares. Insider activity is a valuable indicator of confidence or concern regarding the company’s future.
• Congress Trading Activity:
  We also review the trading patterns of US Senators and Representatives. Their trading behavior can signal broader market trends and potential shifts in investor confidence.
• Monte Carlo Simulations:
  For each ticker, we run 10,000 Monte Carlo simulation scenarios to model potential future outcomes based on historical volatility and market conditions. These simulations help quantify risk and project future performance.

Not Used

We determined through forward testing that Analyst Ratings are not statistically significant for future price predictions, so they are not used in the Stock Trend Forecast.

Forward Testing & Optimization

Our process does not stop at simulation. We perform forward testing by generating directional predictions for thousands of stocks and comparing these predictions with actual market movements. Over time, we run up to one million trials to optimize the weighting factors for each indicator depending on the prevailing market conditions. This rigorous testing process has yielded a directional accuracy ranging from approximately 65% to 85%—varying by timeframe, weight distribution, and overall market conditions.